Annual Tuberculosis Incidence Research Articles

Should anti-tuberculosis therapy be prescribed in erythema induratum? A case-controlled and incidence correlation study between 2001 to 2020 in Taiwan.

Erythema induratum (EI) is a tuberculid associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) infection. TB has been identified in Taiwan with a high percentage of EI using PCR. However, this pathogen has rarely been detected recently. To explore the association between EI, annual incidence of tuberculosis in Taiwan, and treatment outcomes over the past two decades. Patients diagnosed with EI between 2001 and 2020 were enrolled based on histopathology, tissue culture, and TB-PCR tests. Other cases of panniculitis with TB-PCR results were used as controls. Their clinical information was obtained. The results were correlated with the annual incidence of tuberculosis and compared between groups. Fifty-five specimens from EI patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria; three (3/55, 5%) had positive TB PCR. One patient diagnosed with erythema nodosum in the control group had positive TB PCR (1/27, 4%). There was no significant relationship between TB and EI (odds ratio = 1.5, 95% confidence interval = -0.964 to 3.964, p = 1). Correlation between the incidence of TB and number of EI cases was not significant (r = -0.185, p = 0.447). Only four patients received anti-tuberculosis therapy. They all showed clinical improvement without recurrence. One patient with PCR-positive EI was not treated with anti-tuberculosis therapy; however, the skin lesion improved 3 months later. No other patients in the EI group were diagnosed with TB infection in the follow up of 508 person-years. Most EI in Taiwan are nodular vasculitis and not tuberculids owing to well-controlled tuberculosis. This condition can be alleviated without anti-tuberculosis therapy.

Racial and Ethnic Disaggregation of Tuberculosis Incidence and Risk Factors Among American Indian and Alaska Native Persons-United States, 2001-2020.

Objectives. To examine impacts of racial and ethnic disaggregation on the characterization of tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology among American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) persons in the United States. Methods. Using data reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System during 2001 to 2020, we compared annual age-adjusted TB incidence and the frequency of TB risk factors among 3 AI/AN analytic groups: non-Hispanic AI/AN alone persons, multiracial/Hispanic AI/AN persons, and all AI/AN persons (aggregate of the first 2 groups). Results. During 2009 to 2020, annual TB incidence (cases per 100 000 persons) among non-Hispanic AI/AN alone persons (range = 3.87-8.56) was on average 1.9 times higher than among all AI/AN persons (range = 1.89-4.70). Compared with non-Hispanic AI/AN alone patients with TB, multiracial/Hispanic AI/AN patients were significantly more likely to be HIV positive (prevalence ratio [PR] = 2.05) and to have been diagnosed while a resident of a correctional facility (PR = 1.71), and significantly less likely to have experienced homelessness (PR = 0.53) or died during TB treatment (PR = 0.47). Conclusions. Racial and ethnic disaggregation revealed significant differences in TB epidemiology among AI/AN analytic groups. Exclusion of multiracial/Hispanic AI/AN persons from AI/AN analytic groups can substantively affect estimates of racial and ethnic health disparities. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(2):226-236. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307498).

An investigation of the effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of tuberculosis

To explore the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in Yingjisha County, Kashgar Region, Xinjiang, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of TB. The Spearman correlation analysis and distribution lag nonlinear model analysis were conducted on the number of daily reported cases of TB from 2016 to 2023 to study the association effect of various meteorological factors and the daily incidence number of TB in Yingjisha County. A total of 13,288 TB cases were reported from January 2016 to June 2023, and June to October is the peak period of annual TB incidence. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that average daily temperature (AT) and average daily wind speed (WS) were positively correlated with TB incidence (rAT = 0.110, rWS = 0.090); and average daily relative humidity (RH) and TB incidence was negatively correlated (rRH = − 0.093). When AT was − 15 °C, the RR reached a maximum of 2.20 (95% CI: 0.77–6.29) at a lag of 21 days. When RH was 92%, the RR reached a maximum of 1.05 (95% CI: 0.92–1.19) at a lag of 6 days. When WS was 5.2 m/s, the RR reached a maximum of 1.30 (95% CI: 0.78–2.16) at a lag of 16 days. There is a non-linearity and a certain lag between meteorological factors and the occurrence and prevalence of TB in the population, which is mainly manifested in the fact that the risk of incidence of TB decreases with the increase of the daily AT, has a hazardous effect within a certain range of humidity as the average daily RH rises, and gradually increases with the increase of the average daily WS. Local residents are advised to pay attention to climate change so as to take appropriate preventive measures, especially women and middle and old age group should pay close attention to climate change and add more clothes in time, minimise travelling in hazy weather and windy and sandy weather, maintain good nutrition, adequate sleep and moderate exercise in daily life to enhance their immunity, wash hands frequently and ventilate the air, and try to avoid staying in humid and confined spaces in order to reduce the risk of latent TB patients developing the disease.

Effect of a Latent Tuberculosis Infection Programme for Healthcare Workers in a Country with an Intermediate Tuberculosis Burden

Management of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among healthcare workers (HCWs) is crucial for the prevention of nosocomial tuberculosis (TB) transmission. We aimed to determine the effect of an LTBI programme for HCWs in a tertiary care hospital in a country with an intermediate TB burden. In 2013, baseline LTBI screening was implemented for newly hired doctors and nurses, along with annual screening of HCWs in high-risk departments. HCWs with LTBI were also provided with treatment. Since 2017, all HCWs without an LTBI test result have been tested for LTBI. We assessed the annual incidence of active TB among HCWs between 2013 and 2020. Additionally, we evaluated the incidence of active TB among HCWs employed at the hospital in 2020, with a specific focus on those who had undergone LTBI tests between 2013 and 2018, considering their LTBI test results and treatment status. The incidence of active TB among HCWs significantly decreased between 2013 and 2020. The average risk reduction for pulmonary TB was 10.2% per year (95% CI, 1.0-19.0; p = 0.034). Among HCWs employed at the hospital in 2020, 4,354 individuals underwent LTBI tests between 2013 and 2018. Out of them, 927 (21.3%) tested positive. Nine (1.5%) out of 588 without LTBI treatment developed active TB. Among the 1,285 HCWs who underwent follow-up testing, 62 (4.8%) converted, and one (4.3%) out of the 23 without treatment developed active TB. None of those who received treatment were diagnosed with active TB. The LTBI programme significantly reduced the incidence of active TB in HCWs. LTBI screening and treatment should be implemented, particularly in countries with a high or intermediate TB burden.

Burden of Pulmonary Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis in Kajiado, Kenya: An Observational Study.

Rifampicin resistance (RR) is a major challenge in the clinical management of tuberculosis (TB), but data on its prevalence are still sparse in many countries. Our study aimed at estimating the prevalence of RR-TB in Kajiado County, Kenya. Secondary objectives were to estimate the incidence of pulmonary TB in adults and the rate of HIV-TB coinfection. We conducted an observational study in the context of the ATI-TB Project, carried out in Kajiado. The project was based on an active-case-finding campaign implemented with the aid of village chiefs, traditional healers and community health volunteers. Diagnosis relied on Xpert MTB/RIF, including a mobile machine that could be used to cover areas where testing would otherwise be difficult. In sum, 3840 adults were screened for active TB during the campaign. RR cases among all TB diagnoses were 4.6%. The annual incidence of pulmonary TB among adults was 521 cases per 100,000 population. The rate of HIV coinfection was 22.2% among pulmonary TB diagnoses. The prevalence of RR-TB was four times that what could be inferred from official notifications in Kajiado, and higher than overall prevalence in Kenya. In addition, our estimate of incidence of pulmonary TB in adults in Kajiado significantly differed from cases notified in the same area. In contrast, the rate of HIV coinfection was in line with national and regional data. TB diagnostic capability must be strengthened in Kajiado to improve patients' management and public health interventions.

Spatio-temporal analysis of tuberculosis incidence in North Aceh District, Indonesia 2019-2021.

Tuberculosis (TB) infection continues to present as a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in North Aceh District, Aceh Province, Indonesia. Local TB spatial risk factors have been investigated but space-time clusters of TB in the district have not yet been the subject of study. To that end, research was undertaken to detect clusters of TB incidence during 2019-2021 in this district. First, the office of each of the 27 sub-districts wasgeocoded by collecting data of their geographical coordinates. Then, a retrospective space-time scan statistics analysis based on population data and annual TB incidence was performed using SaTScan TM v9.4.4. The Poisson model was used to identify the areas at high risk of TB and the clusters found were ranked by their likelihood ratio (LLR), with the significance level set at 0.05.There were 2,266 TB cases reported in North Aceh District and the annualized average incidence was 122.91 per 100,000 population. The SaTScan analysis identified that there were three most like clusters and ten secondary clusters, while Morans'Ishowed that there was spatial autocorrelation of TB in the district. The sub-district of GeureudongPase was consistently the location of most likely clusters. The indicators showed that there were significant differences between TB data before the COVID-19 pandemic and those found during the study period. These findings may assist health authorities to improve the TB preventive strategies and develop public health interventions, with special reference to the areas where the clusters were found.

[Epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Guangdong province from 2016 to 2020].

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Guangdong province from 2016 to 2020 and provide evidence for the prevention and control of pulmonary TB. Methods: Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the incidence data of pulmonary TB reported in Guangdong from 2016 to 2020. Dynamic geometric series averaging and circular distribution methods were used to reveal the epidemic pattern. Results: A total of 356 748 pulmonary TB cases were reported in Guangdong from 2016 to 2020. The reported incidence of pulmonary TB decreased from 71.82/100 000 to 50.40/100 000 (trend χ2=6 905.57,P<0.001) , with an annual decline rate of 8.47%. Results from the circular distribution methods showed that the incidence peak would occur on May 4th-5th (Z=1 176.96,P<0.05), and the incidence was relatively higher in May compared with other months. The area distribution of the pulmonary TB epidemic was uneven, and the reported average annual incidence was in the order of the eastern area (72.15/100 000), the northern area (68.14/100 000), the western area (65.31/100 000) and the Pearl River Delta area (60.05/100 000). Results of dynamic geometric series averaging analysis showed a declining trend in the reported incidence of pulmonary TB in all areas, except Dongguan, with the average growth rate less than 0.00. The decline rate in the eastern area (-10.90%) and northern area (-10.63%) was higher than the provincial average (-8.47%). The male to female ratio of the cases was 2.63∶1 (258 562∶98 186). The reported average annual pulmonary TB incidence in men (88.37/100 000) was higher than that in women (36.86/100 000), the difference was significant (χ2=75.19, P<0.001). The reported incidence of pulmonary TB generally increased with age (trendχ2=123 849.44, P<0.001), and reached peak in age group ≥65 years (164.54/100 000). Dynamic geometric series averaging analysis showed an increasing trend of the reported pulmonary TB incidence in age groups 5-14 years and 15-24 years, with the average growth rate of 0.05% and 3.60%. Conclusions: The reported annual incidence of pulmonary TB showed a declining trend year by year in Guangdong from 2016 to 2020. However, an increasing incidence was reported in children and adolescents. Active case finding should be strengthened in the elderly and other key populations. With comprehensive TB prevention and control measures, it is still necessary to pay attention to the prevention and control of pulmonary TB in men, low-income groups and less developed areas in Guangdong and strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control in winter and spring.

Tuberculosis endemicity and BCG vaccination: Protection against COVID-19.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected different countries in a differential manner. The host susceptibility and host factors are important parameters for this variability. This study aimed to assess the effect of tuberculosis (TB) endemicity and Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) coverage on COVID-19. Available data regarding TB incidence, BCG coverage (as per the World Health Organization), and COVID-19 incidence of 168 countries as of 19th September 2021. Countries were divided into four cohorts based upon annual TB incidence and BCG coverage and COVID-19 incidence and case fatality rates were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Countries with low TB incidence and low BCG coverage had the highest COVID-19 incidence per lac population. However, no significant difference was seen in COVID-19 cases fatality rate. Higher TB incidence and BCG coverage were associated with lesser incidence of COVID-19. This result paves the way for research into pathogenesis and host immune response in COVID-19.

Tuberculosis Among Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Persons: United States and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, 2010-2019.

Background:In recent years, tuberculosis (TB) incidence in the United States has declined overall but remained high among Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (NH/PI) persons. Few studies have examined the epidemiology of TB among NH/PI persons, particularly in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). We describe TB incidence and characteristics of NH/PI patients during 2010–2019.Methods:We used data from the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System to characterize TB cases reported among NH/PI persons born in the 50 U.S. states (defined to include District of Columbia) and the USAPI. We calculated annual TB incidence among NH/PI patients, stratified by place of birth (U.S. states or USAPI). Using Asian persons born outside the United States—persons historically grouped with NH/PI persons as one racial category—as the reference, we compared demographic, clinical, and socio-behavioral characteristics of NH/PI TB patients.Results:During 2010–2019, 4359 TB cases were reported among NH/PI patients born in the U.S. states (n=205) or the USAPI (n=4154). Median annual incidence per 100,000 persons was 6.5 cases (persons born in the U.S. states) and 150.7 cases (persons born in the USAPI). The proportion of TB patients aged <15 years was higher among NH/PI persons (U.S. states: 54%, USAPI: 24%) than among Asian persons born outside the United States (1%).Conclusions:TB incidence among NH/PI persons is high, particularly among persons born in the USAPI, emphasizing the need to enhance TB prevention strategies in these communities. Interventions should be tailored toward those who experience the highest risk, including NH/PI children and adolescents.

Tuberculosis in Indigenous Persons - United States, 2009-2019.

Populations of indigenous persons are frequently associated with pronounced disparities in rates of tuberculosis (TB) disease compared to co-occurring nonindigenous populations. Using data from the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System on TB cases in U.S.-born patients reported in the United States during 2009-2019, we calculated incidence rate ratios and risk ratios for TB risk factors to compare cases in American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN) and Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (NHPI) TB patients to cases in White TB patients. Annual TB incidence rates among AIAN and NHPI TB patients were on average ≥10 times higher than among White TB patients. Compared to White TB patients, AIAN and NHPI TB patients were 1.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.35-2.71) and 3.39 (CI: 1.44-5.74) times more likely to have renal disease or failure, 1.33 (CI: 1.16-1.53) and 1.63 (CI: 1.20-2.20) times more likely to have diabetes mellitus, and 0.66 (CI: 0.44-0.99) and 0.19 (CI: 0-0.59) times less likely to be HIV positive, respectively. AIAN TB patients were 1.84 (CI: 1.69-2.00) and 1.48 (CI: 1.27-1.71) times more likely to report using excess alcohol and experiencing homelessness, respectively. TB among U.S. indigenous persons is associated with persistent and concerning health disparities.

Pediatric Tuberculosis Disease during Years of High Refugee Arrivals: A 6-Year National Prospective Surveillance Study

Background: In Europe, surveillance and monitoring of pediatric tuberculosis (TB) remains important, particularly in the light of migration in recent years. The aim of the study was to evaluate incidence rates of childhood TB and detailed diagnostic pathways and treatment. Methods: Data were collected through the Swiss Pediatric Surveillance Unit (SPSU) from December 2013 to November 2019. Monthly ­notifications are obtained from the 33 pediatric hospitals in the SPSU, and a detailed questionnaire was sent out upon notification. Inclusion criteria were children and adolescents aged up to 15 years with culture- or molecular-confirmed TB disease or for whom a treatment with ≥3 antimycobacterial drugs had been initiated. Data were compared with age-matched notification data from the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH). Results: Of the 172 cases notified to SPSU, a detailed questionnaire was returned for 161 (93%) children, of which 139 met the inclusion criteria. Reasons for exclusion were age >15 years, double reporting, and not fulfilling the criteria for TB disease. During the same time period, 172 pediatric TB cases were reported to the FOPH, resulting in an incidence of 2.1 per 100,000, ranging from 1.4 to 2.8 per year, without a clear trend over time. In the 64 (46.0%) foreign-born children, incidence rates were higher and peaked in 2016, with 13.7 per 100,000 (p = 0.018). The median interval between arrival in Switzerland and TB diagnosis was 5 (IQR 1–21) months, and 80% were diagnosed within 24 months of arrival. In 58% of the cases, TB disease was confirmed by culture or molecular assays. Age >10 years, presence of fever, or weight loss were independent factors associated with confirmed TB. Conclusion: The annual pediatric TB incidence rate only varied among foreign-born children and was highest in 2016 when refugee influx peaked in Europe. Importantly, most foreign-born children with TB were diagnosed within 2 years after arrival in Switzerland. Thus, the early period after arrival in Switzerland is associated with a higher risk of TB disease in children, and this should be considered for screening guidance in refugees.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Tuberculosis in Hunan Province, China.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a bacterial pathogen worldwide. China has the third highest TB burden in the world, with a high reported burden in Hunan Province (amongst others). This study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution of TB and identify socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental drivers in Hunan Province, China. Numbers of reported cases of TB were obtained from the Tuberculosis Control Institute of Hunan Province, China. A wide range of covariates were collected from different sources, including from the Worldclim database, and the Hunan Bureau of Statistics. These variables were summarized at the county level and linked with TB notification data. Spatial clustering of TB was explored using Moran’s I statistic and the Getis–Ord statistic. Poisson regression models were developed with a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior structure, and with posterior parameters estimated using a Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. A total of 323,340 TB cases were reported to the Hunan TB Control Institute from 2013 to 2018. The mean age of patients was 51.7 years (SD + 17.6 years). The majority of the patients were male (72.6%, n = 234,682) and had pulmonary TB (97.5%, n = 315,350). Of 319,825 TB patients with registered treatment outcomes, 306,107 (95.7%) patients had a successful treatment outcome. The annual incidence of TB decreased over time from 85.5 per 100,000 population in 2013 to 76.9 per 100,000 population in 2018. TB case numbers have shown seasonal variation, with the highest number of cases reported during the end of spring and the beginning of summer. Spatial clustering of TB incidence was observed at the county level, with hotspot areas detected in the west part of Hunan Province. The spatial clustering of TB incidence was significantly associated with low sunshine exposure (RR: 0.86; 95% CrI: 0.74, 0.96) and a low prevalence of contraceptive use (RR: 0.88; 95% CrI: 0.79, 0.98). Substantial spatial clustering and seasonality of TB incidence were observed in Hunan Province, with spatial patterns associated with environmental and health care factors. This research suggests that interventions could be more efficiently targeted at locations and times of the year with the highest transmission risk.

TB research and innovation in Latin America.

The production of tuberculosis (TB) research and innovation in Latin America during the past decade has notably improved. Its role in the acceleration of the decline of the average annual TB incidence rate by 2.5% from 2017 to 2018 is still unclear, but it is looking promising that the region will meet the End TB Strategy targets set for 2030. Well performed and high-quality research and evidence is critical for improving national TB control programme outcomes. In Latin America, this need is most apparent when responding to the multidrug-resistant TB epidemic.There is an urgent need for technological breakthroughs to accelerate by an average of 17% per year if the decline in TB incidence rate is to meet the target set for 2030. Intensified research and innovation, identified as one of the three essential pillars of the End TB Strategy, has scarcely been achieved in the region due to political and economic context. This will be analysed further in this article.

Quantifying the global number of tuberculosis survivors: a modelling study

People who survive tuberculosis face clinical and societal consequences after recovery, including increased risks of recurrent tuberculosis, premature death, reduced lung function, and ongoing stigma. To describe the size of this issue, we aimed to estimate the number of individuals who developed first-episode tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019, the number who survived to 2020, and the number who have been treated within the past 5 years or 2 years. In this modelling study, we estimated the number of people who survived treated tuberculosis using country-level WHO data on tuberculosis case notifications, excluding those who died during treatment. We estimated the number of individuals surviving untreated tuberculosis using the difference between WHO country-level incidence estimates and notifications, applying published age-stratified and HIV-stratified case fatality ratios. To estimate survival with time, post-tuberculosis life tables were developed for each country-year by use of UN World Population Prospects 2019 mortality rates and published post-tuberculosis mortality hazard ratios. Between 1980 and 2019, we estimate that 363 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 287 million-438 million) developed tuberculosis, of whom 172 million (169 million-174 million) were treated. Individuals who developed tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019 had lived 3480 million life-years (95% UI 3040 million-3920 million) after tuberculosis by 2020, with survivors younger than 15 years at the time of tuberculosis development contributing 12% (95% UI 7-17) of these life-years. We estimate that 155 million tuberculosis survivors (95% UI 138 million-171 million) were alive in 2020, the largest proportion (47% [37-57]) of whom were in the WHO South-East Asia region. Of the tuberculosis survivors who were alive in 2020, we estimate that 18% (95% UI 16-20) were treated in the past 5 years and 8% (7-9) were treated in the past 2 years. The number of tuberculosis survivors alive in 2020 is more than ten times the estimated annual tuberculosis incidence. Interventions to alleviate respiratory morbidity, screen for and prevent recurrent tuberculosis, and reduce stigma should be immediately prioritised for recently treated tuberculosis survivors. UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, the National Institute for Health Research, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership.

Tuberculosis care does not end at treatment completion— a perspective from tuberculosis survivors

Tuberculosis survivors need comprehensive care to increase their quality of life beyond the completion of tuberculosis treatment. Socioeconomic and medical challenges are faced by many patients after being cured from tuberculosis. 1 Allwood B Van der Zalm M Makanda G Mortimer K The long shadow post-tuberculosis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2019; 19: 1170-1171 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (16) Google Scholar A systematic review and meta-analysis by Kamila Romanowski and colleagues 2 Romanowski K Baumann B Basham CA Ahmad Khan F Fox GJ Johnston JC Long-term all-cause mortality in people treated for tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2019; 19: 1129-1137 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (51) Google Scholar found the force of mortality for tuberculosis survivors to be 2·91 (95% CI 2·21–3·84) times higher than in those who had never had tuberculosis. Post-tuberculosis lung damage negatively impacts many tuberculosis survivors' quality of life. 3 Meghji J Lesosky M Joekes E et al. Patient outcomes associated with post-tuberculosis lung damage in Malawi: a prospective cohort study. Thorax. 2020; 75: 269-278 Crossref PubMed Scopus (20) Google Scholar , 4 Daniels KJ Irusen E Pharaoh H Hanekom S Post-tuberculosis health-related quality of life, lung function and exercise capacity in a cured pulmonary tuberculosis population in the Breede Valley district, South Africa. S Afr J Physiother. 2019; 751319 Crossref PubMed Scopus (9) Google Scholar Unfortunately, patient care often ends alongside treatment completion, with no follow-up consultations to evaluate mental wellbeing or lung damage. Meghji and colleagues 3 Meghji J Lesosky M Joekes E et al. Patient outcomes associated with post-tuberculosis lung damage in Malawi: a prospective cohort study. Thorax. 2020; 75: 269-278 Crossref PubMed Scopus (20) Google Scholar documented that 246 (61%) of 405 tuberculosis survivors reported respiratory symptoms at the time of treatment completion and 113 (31%) of 368 reported respiratory symptoms 1 year after treatment completion. Mental health is also negatively affected for many tuberculosis survivors, emphasising the need for holistic care to support patients after tuberculosis. 5 Chin AT Rylance J Makumbirofa S et al. Chronic lung disease in adult recurrent tuberculosis survivors in Zimbabwe: a cohort study. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2019; 23: 203-211 Crossref PubMed Scopus (19) Google Scholar Quantifying the global number of tuberculosis survivors: a modelling studyThe number of tuberculosis survivors alive in 2020 is more than ten times the estimated annual tuberculosis incidence. Interventions to alleviate respiratory morbidity, screen for and prevent recurrent tuberculosis, and reduce stigma should be immediately prioritised for recently treated tuberculosis survivors. Full-Text PDF

Tuberculosis notifications in Australia, 2015-2018.

In 2018, the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System received 1,438 tuberculosis (TB) notifications, representing a rate of 5.8 per 100,000 population, consistent with the preceding three years. Australia has achieved and maintained good tuberculosis (TB) control since the mid-1980s, sustaining a low annual TB incidence rate of approximately five to six cases per 100,000 population. The number of multi-drug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) cases diagnosed in Australia is low by international standards, with approximately 2% of TB notifications per year classified as MDR-TB. Australia's overseas-born population continue to represent the majority of TB notifications (between 86% to 89% across the four reporting years) and the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population continues to record TB rates around four to five times higher than the Australian-born Non-Indigenous population. Whilst Australia has achieved and maintained excellent control of TB in Australia, sustained effort is required to reduce local rates further, especially among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations, and to contribute to the achievement of the World Health Organization's goal to end the global TB epidemic by 2035.

The predicted impact of tuberculosis preventive therapy: the importance of disease progression assumptions

BackgroundFollowing infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb), individuals may rapidly develop tuberculosis (TB) disease or enter a “latent” infection state with a low risk of progression to disease. Mathematical models use a variety of structures and parameterisations to represent this process. The effect of these different assumptions on the predicted impact of TB interventions has not been assessed.MethodsWe explored how the assumptions made about progression from infection to disease affect the predicted impact of TB preventive therapy. We compared the predictions using three commonly used model structures, and parameters derived from two different data sources.ResultsThe predicted impact of preventive therapy depended on both the model structure and parameterisation. At a baseline annual TB incidence of 500/100,000, there was a greater than 2.5-fold difference in the predicted reduction in incidence due to preventive therapy (ranging from 6 to 16%), and the number needed to treat to avert one TB case varied between 67 and 157. The relative importance of structure and parameters depended on baseline TB incidence and assumptions about the efficacy of preventive therapy, with the choice of structure becoming more important at higher incidence.ConclusionsThe assumptions use to represent progression to disease in models are likely to influence the predicted impact of preventive therapy and other TB interventions. Modelling estimates of TB preventive therapy should consider routinely incorporating structural uncertainty, particularly in higher burden settings. Not doing so may lead to inaccurate and over confident conclusions, and sub-optimal evidence for decision making.

QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube test can be used for screening latent tuberculosis before biological treatment in a Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-vaccinated country: the HUR-BIO single-center real-life results.

The Turkish population is vaccinated with Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), and the BCG vaccination decreases the specificity of the tuberculin skin test (TST). The purpose of this study was to investigate the incidence of active tuberculosis (TBC) among rheumatic patients who were screened only with the QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) test for latent TBC prior to biological treatment. The Hacettepe University Biological Database (HUR-BIO) was used for latent TBC assessment. Consecutive patients were evaluated from July 2015 to October 2016 by a questionnaire that included the patients' demographic characteristics, treatment history, and symptoms of active TBC. A total of 664 patients were interviewed by physicians. TBC statuses of the 671 non-interviewed patients were checked from the Turkish National Tuberculosis Registry records. Mean TBC incidence per year was calculated for anti-tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) agents. A total of 1335 (58.2% female) patients with the mean age of 44.2 ± 12.9years were included. Of the patients, 836 (62.6%) had spondyloarthropathy, 432 (32.4%) had rheumatoid arthritis, and 67 (5%) had other rheumatologic diseases. The total biological drug exposure was 2292 patient-years (2043 patient-years for anti-TNF-α, 249 patient-years for non-TNF-α inhibitors). Positive and indeterminate QFT-GIT results were found in 258 (19.3%) and 23 (1.7%) patients, respectively. The median follow-up time after the onset of biological agent was 19.4months (IQR = 29.5). Pulmonary TBC was found in 3 (0.2%) of the 1335 patients. The annual incidence of TBC was 147/100,000 patient-years for all TNF-α inhibitors (249/100,000 and 123/100,000 patient-years for QFT-GIT-positive and negative patients, respectively). TBC incidence increased by nearly seven times the Turkish national TBC incidence. The QFT-GIT Test appears acceptable to determine latent TBC before biological agent use. Consequently, the QFT-GIT Test can be appropriately used in BCG-vaccinated countries. Key Points • Our study contributes to filling the gap in the literature by reflecting real-life data about TBC frequency after QFT-GIT use in patients receiving biological agents. • The frequency of active TBC will remain within acceptable limits when only QFT-GIT is used in the screening of latent TBC prior to the use of biological agents in a population where the majority are vaccinated with BCG. • Using the QFT-GIT alone for latent TBC screening prior to biologic treatment in countries with high BCG vaccination rates reduces the number of patients needing isoniazid (INH) treatment.

Capture-recapture study to estimate the true incidence of tuberculosis in Portugal, 2018

Abstract Accurate estimation of the true number of cases of an infectious disease is essential to plan and efficiently allocate available resources. This study aims to improve the Portuguese surveillance system for tuberculosis (TB) by identifying gaps in TB epidemiological surveillance at the national level. We estimated annual TB incidence using a capture-recapture method to assess the sensitivity of national TB surveillance. Using probabilistic record linkage between two data sources, the National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SINAVE) and National Tuberculosis Program Surveillance System (SVIG-TB), we extracted TB diagnosed cases data for calendar year 2018. All reported TB cases were included, classified as confirmed, probable or possible. A two-source capture-recapture analysis using a log-linear model was performed to estimate the number of unobserved TB cases in Portugal and of the proportion identified by the current TB surveillance system. Between the two datasets, we found 896 TB cases (of a total of 2170 cases) that could not be matched (37.5% SINAVE only, 62.5% SVIG only). Based on the log-linear model, it was estimated that there were 148 unobserved TB cases (95% confidence interval 127.96 - 171.31). Therefore, the estimated true number of TB cases in 2018 is 2318, so current surveillance has a sensitivity of 93.6%. Based on these findings, the TB incidence in Portugal is estimated to be 22.55 cases per 100 000 inhabitants. Capture-recapture methods are useful in estimating annual TB incidence in high-resource settings. Although the two TB surveillance systems capture the majority of TB cases in Portugal, we might still be underestimating the true number of TB cases. Because TB is a high impact infectious disease, precise incidence estimates are crucial to allocate treatment and prevention resources and guide health policies. Key messages CRC method showed that Portugal is a TB low incidence country. Epidemiological surveillance systems should have a high sensitivity in order to allocate efficiently resources available.

Incidence of Tuberculosis in Inflammatory Rheumatic Diseases: Results from a Lithuanian Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background and objective: With an increase in survival rates among rheumatic patients, comorbidities and infections, in particular, have gained more importance, especially after the introduction of biologicals to the treatment algorithms. Tuberculosis (TB) infection has always been given a special attention in patients with rheumatic diseases (RD). Although Lithuanian population has one of the highest TB incidence rates among European countries, the incidence of TB in the rheumatic patients’ population is still unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence rate of TB in an inflammatory RD retrospective cohort and to compare that rate with a rate in a general population. Material and Methods: Patients with the first-time diagnosis of inflammatory RD during the period between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2017 were identified from the Lithuanian Compulsory Health Insurance Information System database SVEIDRA. All cases were cross-checked with Health Information center at the Institute of Hygiene, for the vital status of these patients and date of death if the fact of death was documented, and with Tuberculosis Register operated by Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos, for the confirmation of TB cases. Sex and age standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated by dividing the observed numbers of TB among rheumatic patients by the expected number of cases, calculated using national rates from Lithuanian Department of Statistics Official Statistics website. Results: Overall, 8779 patients with newly diagnosed RD were identified during the 2013–2017 period, these included 458 patients who used biological disease modifying drugs (bDMARDs). The mean duration of the follow-up period was 2.71 years. The cohort consisted mainly of women (70%) and a half of the cohort were rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients (53%). Mean age of patients at the time of RD diagnosis was 56 years (range = 18–97 years). There were 9 TB cases identified during 23,800 person years of follow-up: 2 cases among them were treated with bDMARDs. The mean calculated annual TB incidence in RD cohort was 37.81 per 100,000 person years, which is consistent with the incidence rate predicted by national estimates, with a resultant SIR of 0.90 (0.41–1.70). The unadjusted hazard ratio for bDMARD use versus no bDMARD use was 4.54 (0.94; 21.87) in a total cohort and very similar in rheumatoid arthritis cohort; in both cohorts, it was not a statistically significant risk. Conclusions: Here, we present the first nationwide cohort study to assess the incidence of TB in a broad spectrum of inflammatory RD. Although limited by short follow-up period, this study shows that TB incidence in RD cohort does not exceed TB incidence in the general Lithuanian population.